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March Madness Upsets 2022: The Teams We’re Betting On

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Three things are certain in NCAA basketball. The first is that there will be March Madness upsets. The second is that every bracket-picker knows there will be upsets. And the third? Most of us will get some right while missing the majority of them. Such is the business of March Madness.

A caveat: I do not know who will pull off shockers in the 2022 men’s tournament, which starts with the First Four on March 15 and gets going in earnest on March 17. If I did, I would sell that information to sports gamblers for an otherworldly sum of money. But I do know that few NCAA tournament upsets come out of nowhere, and most fit into a specific mold wherein one team uses a tried-and-true playbook to beat an opponent with a more prestigious pedigree.

To that end, here are three different kinds of March upsets, plus candidates from the 2022 bracket to fit into each. These will not all hit, but one or two should, and I recommend treating this list of games like a catalog to help you build your own bespoke list of bracket-busters.

March Madness Upsets 2022: The Teams We’re Betting On

March Madness upsets 2022 Indiana Indiana's Trayce Jackson-Davis (23) shoots agaisnt Iowa's Keegan Murray (15)
Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis (23) shoots against Iowa’s Keegan Murray (15) Darron Cummings/AP / Shutterstock

1. The nearly annual 12-over-5 “upset” that hardly counts as one

Indiana over Saint Mary’s, East region

12th seeds beat fifth seeds relatively often. Since 2000, 12th seeds have won 27 times in the first round. In all but six tournaments in that span, the four No. 12s have combined to win at least once. A bracket that doesn’t include one 12-over-5 upset is likely to have a hole in it. (So is a bracket that has two such upsets, as there usually isn’t more than one in a year. But there were three in 2019, so who knows.)

Anything can happen, and this paragraph could look quite silly in a few days. But the Hoosiers are the most dangerous 12th seed in the field: They have both a good team defense and an offense that, while not exactly good, has turned in solid performances against a few of the Big Ten’s better teams.

One problem is that Indiana has to get through Wyoming in a First Four game on Tuesday just to break into the round of 64. That means this could be an upset pick for a game that doesn’t even happen. But the Gaels don’t have a great scoring attack, and Indiana could score enough with a B-plus offensive showing to make the schools’ seeding look irrelevant.

I don’t love the other 12th seeds this year, and if Indiana doesn’t get through the First Four, I could see this as the rare year in which none of them wins. UAB has to play an athletic Houston team coming off a Final Four run. New Mexico State could find itself outmatched against the first truly good UConn team in a half-decade. And Richmond has given no reason to think it can keep up with the high-flying Iowa offense it will face in the round of 64.

March Madness Upsets 2022 Texas A&M Corpus Christi players celebrate after winning the Southland Conference tournament

Texas A&M Corpus Christi players celebrate after winning the Southland Conference tournament.
David J Phillip/AP / Shutterstock

2. The chaos team that wins by doing something weird

No. 11 Iowa State over No. 6 LSU, Midwest region
No. 16 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi over No. 1 Kansas, Midwest region

Iowa State plays a high-pressure defense and has done a sound job all season of getting its opponents to make mistakes. The Cyclones have the fifth-best rate of turnovers forced in the country. Of course LSU is fourth-best in that metric, and in this matchup the Cyclones could just as easily be the team that has a hard time hanging onto the ball. But we’re picking upsets here, and both LSU and ISU have had considerable ball security problems on offense, where they rank 291st and 315th in turnover rate, respectively. All of that to say: There’s a roughly even chance that either team gives the ball away a bunch, and that lends itself to an upset call.

As an added bonus, LSU is in the unusual position of playing an NCAA tournament game less than a week after firing its head coach. The school gave Will Wade his walking papers on Saturday, right after the NCAA formally accused him of a bunch of violations. It’s a lot for the Tigers’ players to deal with on short notice.

You should never pick a 16th seed because, looking back on past March Madness upsets, they’ve won exactly one tournament game ever—UMBC over Virginia in 2018’s first round. It’s an even worse idea to pick one that has to play a First Four game just to advance to the round of 64.

But if you are feeling spicy as you fill out your bracket, Corpus Christi was 18th in defensive takeaway rate and 16th in offensive rebounding percentage this season, two markers of controlled aggression. The Islanders’ first-round opponent would be Kansas, which is the weakest No. 1 seed according to Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency metric. For the boldest bracket builders, that could be an appealing 16-over-1 moonshot.

SDSU March Madness Upsets 2022 South Dakota State guard Charlie Easley (30) shoots over a North Dakota State defender.

South Dakota State guard Charlie Easley (30) shoots over a North Dakota State defender.
Josh Jurgens/AP / Shutterstock

3. The “shooters shoot” upset of the year

No. 13 South Dakota State over No. 4 Providence, Midwest region
No. 13 Vermont over No. 4 Arkansas, West region
No. 14 Colgate over No. 3 Wisconsin, Midwest region

I really think at least one of these upsets will happen, and the person with the correct one on their bracket will likely win your group chat’s pick’em contest. Here’s the case for each.

South Dakota State leads the country in effective field goal percentage, an efficiency measurement that gives proper weight to three-pointers. The Jackrabbits, in short, are the best Division I team in shooting from the field. This isn’t a new development; the Jacks have had elite offenses for a while, and in their first two seasons under third-year head coach Eric Henderson, they were fourth and sixth in this same statistic.

They’re also No. 1 in three-point percentage specifically, making 44.2 percent of their shots from outside the arc. Guard Charlie Easley is a silly 46-for-91 on the year (50.5 percent), and he’s arguably not the most dangerous player on SDSU’s roster. That’s fellow guard Baylor Scheierman, who’s 75-for-161 (46.6 percent). SDSU doesn’t even have to be hot (by its standards) to make it rain from deep, and Providence’s defense is not especially good.

Vermont is another intriguing pick, and for similar reasons. The Catamounts are third in effective field goal percentage, though they do more of their damage near the basket with center Ryan Davis and guard Ben Shungu, who can hit threes and approach the basket off the dribble. Their opponent, Arkansas, is not a good shooting team (219th in effective field goal rate) and will run into trouble if the Catamounts have a shooting performance anything like their usual efforts.

The story is similar in Colgate vs. Wisconsin. The Raiders are 11th in effective shooting percentage, and the Badgers are 59th. Wisconsin will have other advantages, of course, as is typical when a Big Ten team plays a Patriot League squad. The Badgers are bigger and more athletic, and they take excellent care of the ball. But basketball is a shooting sport, and you could do a lot worse than betting a great shooting team will outperform a mediocre shooting team for 40 minutes one time, regardless of their talent gap.


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10 Best Porters to Drink Right Now

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A bottle of Deschutes Black Butte Porter




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Best Time-Under-Tension Workout for Total-Body Strength

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Barbell Back Squat


The key to 360-degree muscle: 90-degree eccentric isometrics. It might seem like we’re throwing a lot of geometry at you, but the concept behind time under tension (TUT) is simple, says Joel Seedman, PhD, owner of Advanced Human Performance: “Perform the lowering phase of a movement in a slow, controlled fashion, usually 3 to 5 seconds; pause in the stretched position, typically around 90 degrees; then perform the lifting phase in a powerful yet controlled fashion.” Believe us, a time-under-tension workout can humble even seasoned lifters…Eccentric isometrics are like the pressure cooker of training.

“Rather than mindlessly performing slow-tempo reps, you’re using the increased time under tension as a means to fine-tune your body mechanics and alignment, which requires more mental engagement and focus,” Seedman adds.

If you want to forge functional muscle mass and strength while simultaneously bulletproofing the joints and connective tissue, give this 10-move, full-body eccentric isometrics workout a go.

Directions

Perform the following moves as 90-degree eccentric isometrics following the above protocol. Use heavy weight, but not at the detriment of proper form. Rest 60 to 90 seconds between sets and 2 minutes between circuits. Perform once every 2 to 4 days for optimal results.

Best Time-Under-Tension Workout for Total-Body Strength

Circuit 1

Marius Bugge

A. Barbell Back Squat

Set a squat rack up with heavy weight, then grasp bar and step under it. Squeeze shoulder blades together, then stand to unrack bar and step back with feet shoulder-width apart. Inhale, hinge at hips and slowly bend knees to 90 degrees. Pause, keeping natural arch in low back, then extend through hips to powerfully stand. 3 x 4-6 reps

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts renegade row
Marius Bugge

B. Renegade Row

Start in the top position of a pushup with hands shoulder-width apart on moderate-to-heavy dumbbells (shown). Explosively drive right elbow back to row dumbbell toward ribs while balancing on opposite hand and feet. Pause, then slowly lower weight, stopping a few inches above floor. Switch sides after all reps are done. 3 x 5 reps each side

Circuit 2

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing renegade row Dumbbell Bentover Row in gym
Marius Bugge

A. Dumbbell Bentover Row

Stand with feet hip-width apart, holding two moderate-to-heavy dumbbells in front of thighs, palms facing you. Push hips back and hinge torso forward so it’s nearly parallel to floor, soft bend in knees. Dumbbells should be near shins. Drive elbows back to row weights toward ribs. Pause, then slowly lower down for 3 to 5 seconds. 3 x 4-5 reps

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing Incline Dumbbell Chest Press with Legs Raised 
Marius Bugge

B. Incline Dumbbell Chest Press with Legs Raised 

Set an adjustable bench to a 30- to 45-degree angle and lie back with dumbbells in either hand. Engage core and lift legs off floor, flexing feet. Press weights overhead, palms in. Slowly lower to 90 degrees, staying tight and compact. Pause, then drive weights up directly over chest. 3 x 4-5 reps

Circuit 3

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing Dumbbell Bulgarian Squat
Marius Bugge

A. Dumbbell Bulgarian Squat

Stand lunge-length in front of a flat bench, holding heavy dumbbells in each hand by your sides, palms facing in. Rest the ball on top (shoe’s laces) of your right foot behind you on the bench. Slowly lower your body until your front thigh is parallel to the floor. Pause, then drive through your heel to stand. Switch sides after all reps are complete. 2 x 3-4 reps each side

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing Single-leg Romanian Deadlift
Marius Bugge

B. Single-leg Romanian Deadlift

Stand with feet hip-width apart holding dumbbells or kettlebells. Drive right leg up, foot flexed, knee aligned with hip, making a 90-degree angle. Hinge at hips as you slowly lever your torso toward floor, lowering weights and driving right leg back for counterbalance. Hold, then squeeze glutes to reverse. 2 x 3-4 reps each side

Circuit 4

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing pullup
Marius Bugge

A. Pullup

Hang from a pullup bar using an overhand grip with legs extended and feet flexed. Engage lats and draw shoulders down your back, then pull yourself up until chin is higher than hands. Pause at the top, then slowly lower. Pause at bottom, then reset before your next rep. 2-3 x 4-5 reps

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing Kneeling Overhead Barbell Press
Marius Bugge

B. Kneeling Overhead Barbell Press

Hold a bar with moderate-to-heavy load at shoulder level with forearms perpendicular to floor. Kneel at end of bench with feet flexed to grip edge for support. Inhale, engage your core and glutes, then press the bar overhead, pushing your head forward so it passes your face, exhaling at the top.
Slowly lower until elbows are at 90 degrees, then hold to maintain tension. Begin your next rep from here. 2-3 x 4-5 reps

Circuit 5

A. Dumbbell Pushup

Place hands on dumbbells (this provides greater range of motion) at shoulder width and feet wider than shoulder width with just toes touching the ground. Keep head neutral and hips high to increase tension on core, chest and tris and reduce stress on spine. Slowly lower to the floor. Stop
once elbows hit 90 degrees, pause, then push up to start. 1-2 x 6-8 reps

B. Biceps Curl

Stand with feet hip-width apart with moderate-to-heavy dumbbells in each hand hanging by sides. Engage biceps to curl the weights up, keeping upper arms still. Pause at the top, then lower slowly. Don’t let arms drop all the way down to keep greater time under tension on biceps. 1-2 x 6-8 reps


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The Best Jump Ropes for a Killer Cardio Workout

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The Best Jump Ropes for a Killer Cardio Workout




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