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NFL Futures Betting Guide: Teams and Players to Bet on for Next Season

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NFL Futures Betting Guide: Teams and Players to Bet on for Next Season


NFL futures betting is not for everyone, and it is far from the most efficient way to make money, even by the highly uncertain standards of sports betting. Observers struggle to understand the present in sports, much less predict the future, and even successful futures bets require the bettor to let a sportsbook hold their money for extended periods. That’s time that could be spent putting your money to work in various other ways.

On the other hand, NFL futures betting is fun. To the extent that gambling on a sport can provide a thrill, nothing beats having something pegged months in advance and watching it pay off. I recommend it only in small doses and as a way to give yourself something to keep track of over the course of a season or even offseason. The best futures strategy, I’ve always found, is to spread money around on a couple of intriguing prospects and see what happens—while keeping your expectations limited.

With that attitude in mind, here are a handful of early NFL futures bets for 2022 that deserve consideration. Let’s use American odds, where -110 correlates to a $110 bet needed to win $100 and +700 correlates to a $100 winning bet returning $700 (see this article on Super Bowl bets for an odds explainer). Odds here are via the online sportsbooks at DraftKings and FanDuel.

NFL Futures Bets to Make Ahead of Next Season

1. Los Angeles Chargers to Win the Super Bowl: +2400

If you’re going to park money on a futures bet for almost an entire year, don’t do it for a small return (in the event your bet hits). That typically means not picking the favorites, which in this case are the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills at around +750 odds each. This past season’s champion, the Los Angeles Rams, had the seventh-best odds at this time in 2021 (+1500). Nothing’s a guarantee, but it’s not a bad idea to pick teams with similar odds this year.

The Chargers are an intriguing lottery ticket. They have a (hopefully) ascendant quarterback in third-year man Justin Herbert. After winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020, Herbert didn’t take as big a leap as he might’ve preferred in 2021. His interception rate ticked up from 1.7 percent to 2.2 percent of his throws, his adjusted yards-per-attempt held steady at 7.6, and his QBR hopped from 62.6 to 65.6.

The numbers aren’t the full story, though. Herbert has some best arm talent in the NFL, and he thrived in tough moments to manage five fourth-quarter comebacks. The Chargers had one of the worst defenses in the NFL last season, but there’s enough individual talent sprinkled around (defensive end Joey Bosa and safety Derwin James are the headliners) that a step forward in 2022 seems like a good bet.

2. New England Patriots to Win the Super Bowl: +2800

The Patriots got dragged around the field by the Bills in the wild card playoff round, but they’re a good value at these long odds, too. They finished the regular season fourth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, a play-by-play efficiency stat that tends to be relatively predictive of who’s good and who isn’t. Quarterback Mac Jones was the league’s best rookie passer by a wide margin in 2021, even though New England didn’t ask a lot of him. If Jones gets better, the Patriots could be a threat.

3. Los Angeles Chargers to Win the AFC West: +400

The Chiefs have won this division six years in a row and frequently piled long playoff runs atop their dominant regular seasons. But eventually, every dominant team gets some bad breaks, like injuries, and slips up a bit. The Chiefs are still the best bet in the AFC to contend for the Super Bowl in any given year, but they’re due for some bad luck, and 2022 seems like it could be the time.

They’ll probably put the franchise tag on free agent tackle Orlando Brown, but there’s a good chance that an inconsistent secondary loses its best player (safety Tyrann Mathieu), one of the league’s better cornerbacks (Charvarius Ward), and maybe another player or two. If the Chiefs take a small step backward and the Chargers make the leap I’m expecting, then L.A. becomes an attractive option here.

4. San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC West: +200

The Rams are, of course, the division favorites at +150. But let’s note a few things: The 49ers beat them in Los Angeles to close the regular season and very nearly did it again in the NFC Championship. The Rams are excellent and will stay that way for a while, but it’s difficult to see how they’re better than they were in 2021.

Cooper Kupp just had the best receiving season ever. It’s hard to go up from that, and the Rams’ No. 2 receiver down the stretch, Odell Beckham Jr., is staring down both free agency and rehab from the torn ACL he suffered in the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford, the title-winning quarterback, will be another year older at 34. Andrew Whitworth, the 40-year-old left tackle who somehow continued to play at an elite level in 2021, will probably retire. Von Miller, the similarly ageless pass-rusher, is a free agent and might roll out of town. Even if he doesn’t, the Rams have an old roster core with lots of contractual uncertainty. They are a brilliantly managed team and will be fine in the long run, but they might drop down a peg in 2022.

The 49ers are poised to get better, and they’re clearly not far behind the Rams to begin with (they finished fifth in DVOA to the Niners’ sixth). Second-year QB Trey Lance, who figures to have a lot more upside, if a lower floor, than Jimmy Garoppolo, is likely to take over behind center. They aren’t going to lose any premium free agents and only have one player, guard Laken Tomlinson at No. 26, in the top 75 of the Pro Football Focus free agent rankings. For those reasons, the Niners are a good futures bet in the West, and probably for the NFC title and Super Bowl, too.

5. Kayvon Thibodeaux to be the NFL Draft’s first pick: +800

Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal at +120 and Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson at +200 are the far-and-away market favorites to go first in April’s draft. I don’t see a ton of value there, and it’s not clear the Jacksonville Jaguars have figured out who they want. But Thibodeaux at +800 looks like the pure value play. He entered the 2021 college season as most people’s favorite, and he’s likely to test off the charts in the pre-draft workout circuit. I must caution, however, that placing any bet on the Jaguars’ decision-making is a dangerous exercise.


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10 Best Porters to Drink Right Now

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A bottle of Deschutes Black Butte Porter




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Best Time-Under-Tension Workout for Total-Body Strength

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Barbell Back Squat


The key to 360-degree muscle: 90-degree eccentric isometrics. It might seem like we’re throwing a lot of geometry at you, but the concept behind time under tension (TUT) is simple, says Joel Seedman, PhD, owner of Advanced Human Performance: “Perform the lowering phase of a movement in a slow, controlled fashion, usually 3 to 5 seconds; pause in the stretched position, typically around 90 degrees; then perform the lifting phase in a powerful yet controlled fashion.” Believe us, a time-under-tension workout can humble even seasoned lifters…Eccentric isometrics are like the pressure cooker of training.

“Rather than mindlessly performing slow-tempo reps, you’re using the increased time under tension as a means to fine-tune your body mechanics and alignment, which requires more mental engagement and focus,” Seedman adds.

If you want to forge functional muscle mass and strength while simultaneously bulletproofing the joints and connective tissue, give this 10-move, full-body eccentric isometrics workout a go.

Directions

Perform the following moves as 90-degree eccentric isometrics following the above protocol. Use heavy weight, but not at the detriment of proper form. Rest 60 to 90 seconds between sets and 2 minutes between circuits. Perform once every 2 to 4 days for optimal results.

Best Time-Under-Tension Workout for Total-Body Strength

Circuit 1

Marius Bugge

A. Barbell Back Squat

Set a squat rack up with heavy weight, then grasp bar and step under it. Squeeze shoulder blades together, then stand to unrack bar and step back with feet shoulder-width apart. Inhale, hinge at hips and slowly bend knees to 90 degrees. Pause, keeping natural arch in low back, then extend through hips to powerfully stand. 3 x 4-6 reps

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts renegade row
Marius Bugge

B. Renegade Row

Start in the top position of a pushup with hands shoulder-width apart on moderate-to-heavy dumbbells (shown). Explosively drive right elbow back to row dumbbell toward ribs while balancing on opposite hand and feet. Pause, then slowly lower weight, stopping a few inches above floor. Switch sides after all reps are done. 3 x 5 reps each side

Circuit 2

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing renegade row Dumbbell Bentover Row in gym
Marius Bugge

A. Dumbbell Bentover Row

Stand with feet hip-width apart, holding two moderate-to-heavy dumbbells in front of thighs, palms facing you. Push hips back and hinge torso forward so it’s nearly parallel to floor, soft bend in knees. Dumbbells should be near shins. Drive elbows back to row weights toward ribs. Pause, then slowly lower down for 3 to 5 seconds. 3 x 4-5 reps

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing Incline Dumbbell Chest Press with Legs Raised 
Marius Bugge

B. Incline Dumbbell Chest Press with Legs Raised 

Set an adjustable bench to a 30- to 45-degree angle and lie back with dumbbells in either hand. Engage core and lift legs off floor, flexing feet. Press weights overhead, palms in. Slowly lower to 90 degrees, staying tight and compact. Pause, then drive weights up directly over chest. 3 x 4-5 reps

Circuit 3

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing Dumbbell Bulgarian Squat
Marius Bugge

A. Dumbbell Bulgarian Squat

Stand lunge-length in front of a flat bench, holding heavy dumbbells in each hand by your sides, palms facing in. Rest the ball on top (shoe’s laces) of your right foot behind you on the bench. Slowly lower your body until your front thigh is parallel to the floor. Pause, then drive through your heel to stand. Switch sides after all reps are complete. 2 x 3-4 reps each side

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing Single-leg Romanian Deadlift
Marius Bugge

B. Single-leg Romanian Deadlift

Stand with feet hip-width apart holding dumbbells or kettlebells. Drive right leg up, foot flexed, knee aligned with hip, making a 90-degree angle. Hinge at hips as you slowly lever your torso toward floor, lowering weights and driving right leg back for counterbalance. Hold, then squeeze glutes to reverse. 2 x 3-4 reps each side

Circuit 4

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing pullup
Marius Bugge

A. Pullup

Hang from a pullup bar using an overhand grip with legs extended and feet flexed. Engage lats and draw shoulders down your back, then pull yourself up until chin is higher than hands. Pause at the top, then slowly lower. Pause at bottom, then reset before your next rep. 2-3 x 4-5 reps

Athletic man wearing gray T-shirt and maroon shorts doing Kneeling Overhead Barbell Press
Marius Bugge

B. Kneeling Overhead Barbell Press

Hold a bar with moderate-to-heavy load at shoulder level with forearms perpendicular to floor. Kneel at end of bench with feet flexed to grip edge for support. Inhale, engage your core and glutes, then press the bar overhead, pushing your head forward so it passes your face, exhaling at the top.
Slowly lower until elbows are at 90 degrees, then hold to maintain tension. Begin your next rep from here. 2-3 x 4-5 reps

Circuit 5

A. Dumbbell Pushup

Place hands on dumbbells (this provides greater range of motion) at shoulder width and feet wider than shoulder width with just toes touching the ground. Keep head neutral and hips high to increase tension on core, chest and tris and reduce stress on spine. Slowly lower to the floor. Stop
once elbows hit 90 degrees, pause, then push up to start. 1-2 x 6-8 reps

B. Biceps Curl

Stand with feet hip-width apart with moderate-to-heavy dumbbells in each hand hanging by sides. Engage biceps to curl the weights up, keeping upper arms still. Pause at the top, then lower slowly. Don’t let arms drop all the way down to keep greater time under tension on biceps. 1-2 x 6-8 reps


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The Best Jump Ropes for a Killer Cardio Workout

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The Best Jump Ropes for a Killer Cardio Workout




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